The dollar is storming through the charts and making gains everywhere before the major release of the Non-Farm Payrolls. Not all currency pairs are equal – some are more vulnerable than others and approaching dangerous levels. A nice gain of jobs in the Non-Farm Payrolls could push them off the cliff. Here’s a quick update on three vulnerable currencies:
Update: These three currencies already fell off the cliff, before the Non-Farm Payrolls on risk aversion. The NFP looks like a win-win situation for the dollar: a rise will show a strong American economy and send the dollar up, and weakness will trigger more risk aversion behavior – the dollar rises as well.
- EUR/USD – Key level: 1.3750. It’s heading down also on internal problems from various countries. 1.3750 is a strong support line, but the weakness is huge and it could fall off the cliff. If so, the next stop is 1.3420.
- GBP/USD – Key level: 1.5720. Although Britain enjoys relatively better numbers, it’s getting too close the support line that wasn’t breached in already 9 months. It could also fall down with the next level being 1.5350.
- AUD/USD: Key levels: 0.8735 and 0.8567: The Aussie lost its mojo when an expected rate hike just didn’t happen earlier this week. It’s also getting close to dangerous levels, and as its friend, NZD/USD already fell off its cliff (0.70), the Aussie can follow soon.
What about the others? The Swissy and the Yen are rather stable and far enough from dangerous levels. The Canadian dollar depends a lot on its own job numbers, released 90 minutes before the NFP, and it has its own strength. And the kwi already fell off the cliff following the leap in the unemployment rate. What will we see in the NFP? There are lots of confusing indicators, and the number could range from a big loss like last month or a neat rise. I’m optimistic. Further reading:
- My Non-Farm Payrolls
- 5 Notes for Non-Farm Payrolls Trading – especially for new traders.
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