The US Non-Manufacturing PMI is based on a survey of purchasing managers in sectors other than manufacturing. Respondents are surveyed for their view of the economy and business conditions in the US. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.
Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for USD/JPY.
Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT.
Indicator Background
Market analysts are always interested in the views of purchase managers on the economy, as the latter are considered to be attuned to the latest economic and financial developments, and their expectations could be an indication of future economic trends.
The Non-Manufacturing PMI came in at 53.5 points in May, below the estimate which stood at 55.5. This was also a four-month low for the index. The forecast for June is almost unchanged, with a prediction of 53.7. Will the index meet or beat the forecast this month?
Sentiments and levels
Intervention by the BOJ seems unlikely at this point. The central bank appears to be too weak to have much impact in light of the current events, which are quite dramatic. The immense stress around Spain and also the loss of momentum in the US drive money to the “safety” of the yen, despite the huge Japanese debt. Thus, the overall sentiment is neutral on JPY/USD towards this release.
Technical levels, from top to bottom: 80.20, 80, 79.60, 78.30, 77.50 and 77.
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: 51.0 to 57.0: In such a case, JPY/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
- Above expectations: 57.1 to 60.0: An unexpected higher reading can send the pair above one resistance line.
- Well above expectations: Above 60.0: The likelihood of a sharp expansion is low. Such an outcome would push the pair upwards, and a second resistance line might be broken as a result.
- Below expectations: 48.0 to 50.9: A sharper decrease than forecast could push USD/JPY downwards and break one level of support.
- Well below expectations: Below 48.0: Such an outcome would indicate substantial contraction in the manufacturing sector. This would likely push the pair down, possibly breaking a second support level.
For more about the yen, see the USD/JPY.