The New Zealand GDP is a key indicator which measures production and growth in the economy. Analysts consider GDP one the most important indicators of economic activity. New Zealand GDP is published every quarter, magnifying the importance of each release. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the New Zealand dollar.
Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for NZD/USD.
Published on Wednesday at 22:45 GMT.
Indicator Background
New Zealand GDP provides an excellent indication of the health and direction of the New Zealand economy. Traders should pay particular attention to the indicator, as any unexpected reading could change the direction of NZD/USD.
GDP has been in positive territory since 2011, and the Q4 reading for 2012 recorded a modest increase of 0.2%. The market forecast for Q1 is slightly higher, with an estimate of 0.3%. Will the indicator surprise the markets with a strong reading?
Sentiments and levels
June has been kind to the kiwi, but traders should keep in mind that May was brutal, as the currency has shown great volatility. With the Euro-zone in financial turmoil and the US showing some signs of slowing down, investors will be likely be drawn towards the safe haven currencies, at the expense of “risk currencies” such as the New Zealand dollar. However, a strong GDP figure could give a quick boost to the kiwi. Thus, the overall sentiment is bearish on NZD/USD towards this release.
Technical levels, from top to bottom: 81.85, 80.60, 80, 79, 78.12, and 77.23.
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: 0.0% to 0.6%. In such a scenario, the NZD/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
- Above expectations: 0.7% to 1.0%: An unexpected higher reading can send the pair above one resistance line.
- Well above expectations: Above 1.0%: An unexpected surge in GDP would likely push NZD/USD upwards, and a second resistance line might be broken as a result.
- Below expectations: -0.4% to -0.1%: A contraction in GDP could hurt the kiwi and push the pair below one support level.
- Well below expectations: Below -0.4%. In this scenario, the NZD/USD could break a second support level.
For more on the Euro, see the NZD/USD.