The British Services PMI is based on a survey of purchasing managers in the services sector. Respondents are surveyed for their view of the economic and business conditions in the UK. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the pound.
Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for GBP/USD.
Published on Tuesday at 9:30 GMT.
Indicator Background
Market analysts are always interested in the views of purchase managers on the economy, as the latter are considered to be attuned to the latest economic and financial developments, and their expectations could be an indication of future economic trends.
British Services PMI was a major disappointment in January, dropping below the 50 point line for the first time in 2012. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. The February forecast calls for a slight improvement, to 49.8 points. Will the index beat the estimate and push back above the 50 level?
Sentiments and levels
Nothing seems to have gone right for the pound in January, which shed about five cents against the US dollar during that time. The downward spiral could continue if UK numbers continue to point to a sluggish British economy. The US recovery may be bumpy, but is certainly much stronger than what we’re seeing out of the UK. Thus, the overall sentiment is bearish on GBP/USD towards this release.
Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.5930, 1.5850, 1.5750, 1.5648, 1.5516 and 1.5406.
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: 47.0 to 53.0: In such a case, GBP/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
- Above expectations: 53.1 to 56.0: An unexpected higher reading can send the pair above one resistance line.
- Well above expectations: Above 56.0: The likelihood of a sharp expansion is low. Such an outcome would push the pair upwards, and a second resistance line might be broken as a result.
- Below expectations: 44.0 to 46.9: A sharper decrease than forecast could push GBP/USD downwards and break one level of support.
- Well below expectations: Below 44.0: This scenario would indicate substantial contraction in the services sector. This would likely push the pair down, possibly breaking a second support level.
For more about the pound, see the GBP/USD.