AUD/USD: Trading the Australian jobs Apr 2015

Australian Employment Change, which is released monthly, provides a snapshot of the strength of the Australian labor market. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Australian dollar.

Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for AUD/USD.

Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT.

Indicator Background

Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. Thus, the release of Employment Change is a market-mover which can affect the movement of AUD/USD.

Employment Change rebounded in February with a strong gain of 15.6 thousand, within expectations. Another strong reading is expected in the March report, with an estimate of 14.9 thousand.

Sentiment and Levels

The RBA has made no secret that it would like to see a lower AUD/USD exchange rate, and any change in interest rates will almost certainly be in a downward direction. US employment data rebounded nicely last week following the dismal NFP report. AUD/USD continues to trade at low levels, and the pair could move closer to the symbolic level of US 75 cents. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on AUD/USD towards this release.

Technical levels from top to bottom: 0.7978, 0.7799, 0.7692, 0.7601, 0.7528 and 0.7403.

5 Scenarios

1. Within expectations: 12.0K to 18.0K: In this scenario, AUD/USD could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
2. Above expectations: 18.1K to 22.0K: A strong reading could push the pair above one resistance level.
3. Well above expectations: Above 22.0K: An unexpectedly strong rise in employment numbers could propel AUD/USD upwards, and two or more resistance lines could be broken.
4. Below expectations: 8.0K to 11.9K: A lower than expected reading could pull the pair downwards, with one support level at risk.
5. Well below expectations: Below 8.0K: In this scenario, AUD/USD could break two or more support levels.

For more on the Aussie, see the AUD/USD.

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