US Final GDP is a key release and is published each quarter. GDP reports measure production and growth of the economy, and are considered by analysts as one the most important indicators of economic activity. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.
Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD.
Published on Wednesday at 12:30 GMT.
Indicator Background
Final GDP is the final of three GDP versions. Traders should pay close attention to the GDP release, as an unexpected reading could quickly affect the direction of EUR/USD.
US Preliminary GDP posted a decline of 0.7% in Q1, which was within expectations. The markets are braced for another decline for the Q1 Final GDP, with an estimate of -0.2%.
Sentiments and levels
In Europe, the economy continues to struggle and the Greek crisis is taking its toll, but for now, the driver for the dollar is diving due to the data dependent doves. The lack of confidence from the Fed statements could hurt the dollar for another week. Upon a resolution of the Greek crisis we could see a short term rally. So, the overall sentiment is neutral on EUR/USD towards this release.
Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.1450, 1.1373, 1.1290, 1.1190, 1.1113 and 1.1050.
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: -0.5% to +0.1%: In such a scenario, EUR/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
- Above expectations: +0.1% to +0.5%: An unexpected higher reading can push the pair below one support line.
- Well above expectations: Above +0.5%: A strong reading would likely boost the dollar, and the pair could break below a second support line as a result.
- Below expectations: -1.0% to -0.6%: In this scenario, EUR/USD could push above one resistance level.
- Well below expectations: Below -1.0%. A sharp contraction could result in the pair breaking above a second resistance line.
For more on the euro, see the EUR/USD.
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