Australian Employment Change, which is released monthly, provides a snapshot of the health of the Australian labor market. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Australian dollar.
Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for AUD/USD.
Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT.
Indicator Background
Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. Thus, the release of Employment Change is a market-mover which can affect the movement of AUD/USD.
The indicator came in at +7.3 thousand in June, crushing the estimate of -2.1 thousand. The markets are expecting another respectable gain in the July report, with an estimate of +12.5 thousand.
Sentiment and Levels
With the US economy showing some strong numbers for Q2, speculation remains high that rates will rise, perhaps as early as September. Monetary divergence with the RBA will likely continue to weigh on the Aussie, despite the RBA shrugging off the currency’s slide. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on AUD/USD towards this release.
Technical levels from top to bottom: 0.7692, 0.7597, 0.7438, 0.7266, 0.7113 and 0.7011.
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: 9.0K to 16.0K: In this scenario, AUD/USD could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
- Above expectations: 16.1K to 19.0K: A strong reading could push the pair above one resistance level.
- Well above expectations: Above 19.0K: A sharp rise in employment numbers could propel AUD/USD upwards, and two or more resistance lines could be broken.
- Below expectations: 6.0K to 8.9K: A lower than expected reading could pull the pair downwards, with one support level at risk.
- Well below expectations: Below 6.0K: A very poor reading will likely hurt confidence in the Australian economy and AUD/USD could break two or more support levels.
For more on the Aussie, see the AUD/USD.
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