GBP/USD: Trading the British Aug 2015

British Average Earnings Index, released each month, is a leading of consumer inflation. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the pound.

Update: UK wages: +2.4% – GBP falls

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for GBP/USD.

Published on Tuesday at 8:30 GMT.

Indicator Background

The Average Earnings Index is closely watched by analysts, and an unexpected reading can have a significant effect on the movement of GBP/USD.

The key indicator has been gaining strength in recent readings, and posted an excellent gain of 3.2% in May, within expectations. The estimate for June stands at 2.8%. Will the indicator match or beat the prediction?

Sentiments and levels

The BOE surprised with its vote on a rate hike, and any rate increase in the UK is about a year away. With the US likely looking at a rate increase before the end of the year, the monetary divergence will probably continue to weigh on the pound. Thus, the overall sentiment is neutral on GBP/USD towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.5909, 1.5769, 1.5682, 1.5590, 1.5485, and 1.5341.

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations: 2.5% to 3.1%. In this scenario, GBP/USD could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
  2. Above expectations: 3.2% to 3.5%: A stronger reading than predicted could push the pair above one resistance line.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 3.5%: An unexpectedly sharp rise could push GBP/USD upwards, with a second line of resistance at risk.
  4. Below expectations: 2.1% to 2.4%: A lower than expected reading could pull the pair downwards, with one support level at risk.
  5. Well below expectations: Below 2.0%: In this scenario, the pair could break below a second support level.

For more on the pound, see the GBP/USD.

Follow this event live: 

Powered by FXstreet.com
Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *