ECB QE: Are reinvestments worth an extra €20 billion/month?

The president of the ECB certainly did not like the market reaction to the new measures he introduced. He can probably blame himself, at least partially, for creating huge expectations and not meeting them.

Draghi did some damage control, especially in explaining the magnitude of re-investing proceeds and also admitted, in the video below, that he was trying to mitigate the market reaction.

Among other things, Draghi explained in a speech in New York that the extension of the program by 6 months and the re-investing of proceeds are worth no less than 680 billion euros.

Markets were disappointed by the lack of new buys: the ECB left the monthly buy rate at 60 billion. Adding 6 months to the program therefore adds 6×60 = 360 billion euros.

So if we do the most simplistic math to try capture the impact of re-investing proceeds (maturing bonds), we get 680-260=320 billion.

From now, early December 2015 and yntil the end of March 2017 we have a total of 16 months:. So if we spread out 320 billion over 16 months, we get an extra 20 billion a month, making the total= 60+20=80 billion/month.

And a rise to 75 billion was expected. So according to this very simplistic math, we can actually see a beat of market expectations.

Yet again, these calculations are very simplistic and maintaining the level of the balance sheet is something the Fed had done from the very beginning. In addition and as seen here, Draghi admits he is in damage control mode. Will markets buy it?

More: ECB December Decisions – all the updates

Draghi admits (from 0:59):

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