Australian Employment Change, which is released monthly, provides a snapshot of the health of the Australian labor market. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Australian dollar.
Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for AUD/USD.
Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT.
Indicator Background
Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. Thus, the release of Employment Change is a market-mover which can affect the movement of AUD/USD.
Employment Change posted an excellent gain of 26.1 thousand in March, well above the estimate of 18.6 thousand. The markets are expecting a softer reading in the April report, with a forecast of 12.1 thousand.
Sentiment and Levels
The RBA lowered rates earlier in May and could make another cut in August, after the Australian election. With a June hike by the Federal Reserve still a possibility, the recent Aussie slide could continue. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on AUD/USD towards this release.
Technical levels from top to bottom: 0.7597, 0.7438, 0.7334, 0.7192, 0.7105 and 0.7002
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: 8.0K to 16.0K: In this scenario, AUD/USD could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
- Above expectations: 16.1K to 21.0K: A stronger reading than expected could push the pair above one resistance level.
- Well above expectations: Above 21.0K: In this scenario, AUD/USD could break above two or more resistance lines.
- Below expectations: 4.0 to 7.9K: A lower than expected reading could pull the pair downwards, with one support level at risk.
- Well below expectations: Below 4.0K: A soft reading will likely hurt confidence in the Australian economy, and AUD/USD could break below two or more support levels.
For more on the Aussie, see the AUD/USD.