Australian GDP is the primary gauge of the production and growth of the economy. It is considered by analysts as one the most important indicators of economic activity, and a reading which is higher than expected is bullish for the Australian dollar.
Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for AUD/USD.
Published on Wednesday at 1:30 GMT.
Indicator Background
Australian GDP is released on a quarterly basis, and provides an excellent indication of the health and size of the Australian economy. An unexpected reading can quickly affect the movement of AUD/USD.
GDP posted a strong gain of 1.1% in Q1, easily beating the estimate of 0.5%. GDP growth is expected to slow to 0.4% in Q2, with an estimate of 0.4%. Will the indicator repeat and beat the estimate?
Sentiments and levels
There is a strong possibility that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in 2016, although a December move is more likely than one in September. In Australia, the RBA has already cut rates twice this year, but is expected to leave rates at current levels in September. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on AUD/USD towards this release.
Technical levels, from top to bottom: 0.7835, 0.7692, 0.7597, 0.7513, 0.7438 and 0.7334
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: 0.1% to 0.7%. In such a scenario, the AUD/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
- Above expectations: 0.8% to 1.1%: An unexpected higher reading can send the pair above one resistance line.
- Well above expectations: Above 1.1%: The chances of such a scenario are low. Such an outcome could push AUD/USD upwards, and a second resistance line might be broken as a result.
- Below expectations: -0.4% to 0.0%: A weak reading could push AUD/USD below one support line.
- Well below expectations: Below -0.4%. In this scenario, we could see the pair drop below a second support level.
For more on AUD/USD, see the AUD/USD.