EUR/USD enjoyed Macron’s performance as well as the dollar’s underperformance to stage a rally. Can it be close to the end? Here are two opinions:
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:
EUR: Cyclical Disadvantage To Cap Further EUR/USD Gains – Barclays
The EUR appreciated last week following a less-hawkish Fed and some relief over the rise of populism in Europe, notes Barclays Capital Research.
“Further strength, however, is unlikely given the significant yield and cyclical disadvantage versus the US,” Barclays argues.
In terms of data, Barclays forecasts the euro area composite PMI (Friday) to inch up again in March to 56.2.
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EUR: A Final Round Of Capitulation By EUR Shorts – SocGen
Societe Generale FX Strategy notes that EUR/USD is trading through 1.08 today with no significant US or Eurozone economic data.
“….Given that the underlying sentiment towards the Euro remains negative, this may be enough to trigger a final round of capitulation by Euro shorts,” SocGen argues.
Elsewhere, SocGen notes that EUR/GBP needs to break 0.88 to excited chart-lovers but that will happen in due course and still promotes longs in AUD/JPY.