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Month: June 2020
GBP/USD: Ugly coronavirus contest between UK and US focus of next moves
GBP/USD has suffered from insufficient BOE support and coronavirus concerns. Preliminary UK PMIs, US investment and consumption figures, and coronavirus developments are eyed. Mid-June’s daily chart is showing bears are gaining some ground. The FX Poll shows experts are bearish in the short and medium terms. Bailey has bailed out – the insufficient central bank support … “GBP/USD: Ugly coronavirus contest between UK and US focus of next moves”
Hong Kong Dollar Peg: How vulnerable is it and if it breaks, how will it happen? Explained
China’s new security law and the slow Sino-American decoupling risk Hong Kong dollar peg. Hong Kong is the world’s No. 3 financial center and a break of the 36-year peg could cause jitters. The unpegging, if it happens, may occur while the world is distracted. The Swiss National Bank vowed to uphold the EUR/CHF peg – … “Hong Kong Dollar Peg: How vulnerable is it and if it breaks, how will it happen? Explained”
BOE Quick Analysis: Three reasons to sell sterling as Bailey seems burned out
The BOE increased QE by £100, the lower bound of expectations. Running through the program by year-end suggests slower support from Governor Bailey. Chief Economist Andy Haldane’s dissent also suggests bailout fatigue. Is that all folks? The pound has recovered its pre-Bank of England losses but seems reluctant to bounce. It may now be headed … “BOE Quick Analysis: Three reasons to sell sterling as Bailey seems burned out”
BOE Preview: Bailey may boost pound by going big on bond-buying, beware negative rates
The Bank of England is expected to boost its bond-buying scheme and leave rates unchanged. More money-printing is pound-positive, contrary to pre-pandemic logic. The specter of negative rates may limit sterling gains. Debt monetization is creeping in – but it is turning positive for underlying currencies. The euro benefited from a larger-than-expected increase in the … “BOE Preview: Bailey may boost pound by going big on bond-buying, beware negative rates”
New Zealand GDP Preview: Room for a positive surprise, NZD/USD may advance, pending market mood
New Zealand is expected to report a drop of 1% first-quarter economic output. Upbeat Australian figures imply a better outcome. NZD/USD has room to rise, but the reaction also depends on the market movement. New Zealand has been a success story in combating coronavirus – passing 24 days without new cases until two popped up … “New Zealand GDP Preview: Room for a positive surprise, NZD/USD may advance, pending market mood”
UK Inflation Preview: Sterling needs Goldilocks CPI to rise ahead of the BOE
UK inflation has likely extended its fall to 0.5% yearly in May. Coming 24 hours ahead of the BOE, the size of QE and tone on negative rates may move. GBP/USD is sensitive to any developments amid ongoing Brexit and coronavirus uncertainty. The rush to buy toilet paper is over – and even the bounce … “UK Inflation Preview: Sterling needs Goldilocks CPI to rise ahead of the BOE”
GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Will Bailey bail out the pound after Powell’s punch? Brexit, coronavirus eyed
GBP/USD has climbed down from the peak following the Fed’s pessimism. The Bank of England’s rate decision, Brexit, and coronavirus developments are eyed. Mid-June’s daily chart is showing a mixed picture. The FX Poll is pointing to a short-term correction and a fall afterward. Has cable begun its climbdown? The Fed’s commitment to low rates, … “GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Will Bailey bail out the pound after Powell’s punch? Brexit, coronavirus eyed”
AUD/USD Weekly Forecast: Finally turning down under? Australian jobs, US coronavirus data eyed
AUD/USD tumbled down as the market mood soured on several fronts. Australia’s jobs report, US coronavirus figures, and Chinese data are eyed. Mid-June’s daily chart is painting a bullish picture. The FX Poll is pointing to short term gains before a downfall afterward. The tables have turned – a mix of Fed pessimism, rising US … “AUD/USD Weekly Forecast: Finally turning down under? Australian jobs, US coronavirus data eyed”
UK GDP Preview: A 20% plunge could serve as a third blow to sterling, three scenarios
Economists estimate that the UK economy has lost 18.4% of its output in April. Data for the first full month of lockdown may provide certainty, but also gloom. Concerns about coronavirus and Brexit may be compounded by GDP figures. How are you coping with the lockdown? That is often the first question asked when Brits … “UK GDP Preview: A 20% plunge could serve as a third blow to sterling, three scenarios”