The British Services PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) is based on a survey of purchasing managers in the services sector. Respondents are surveyed for their view of the economy and business conditions in the UK. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the pound.
Update: UK services PMI falls to 56.2 – GBP/USD pressured
Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for GBP/USD.
Published on Tuesday at 9:30 GMT.
Indicator Background
Market analysts are always interested in the views of purchase managers on the economy, as the latter are considered to be attuned to the latest economic and financial developments, and their expectations could be an indication of future economic trends.
The index continues to post figures well above the 50 level, pointing to continuing expansion in the services sector. The September release came dipped to 58.7 points, short of the estimate of 59.1 points. The markets are expecting more of the same in the upcoming release, with an estimate of 58.5 points.
Sentiments and levels
US GDP looked sharp in Q3, pointing to strong economic growth. With the Fed giving the economy a thumbs up and winding up QE, the next move is a rate hike in 2015. The UK economy is showing some signs of slowing down, and the BoE is not in any rush to raise interest rates. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on GBP/USD towards this release.
Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.6250, 1.6131, 1.6006, 1.5909, 1.5746 and 1.5628.
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: 56.0 to 61.0: In such a case, GBP/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
- Above expectations: 61.1 to 65.0: An unexpected higher reading can send the pair above one resistance line.
- Well above expectations: Above 65.0: Such an outcome would likely prop up the pound, and a second resistance line might be broken as a result.
- Below expectations: 51.0 to 55.9: A sharper decrease than forecast could push GBP/USD downwards and break one level of support.
- Well below expectations: Below 51.0: A poor reading would point to weak expansion or even contraction in the services sector. This would likely push the pair downwards, possibly breaking a second support level.
For more about the pound, see the GBP/USD.
To follow this event live:
Powered by FXstreet.com
Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs