On one hand, a rate hike in Canada is priced in. On the other hand, there is no 100% consensus among analysts that the BOC will indeed pull the trigger. Here are two opinions:
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:
CAD: BoC Hike In The Price; Investors May Sell On Fact – Citi
Citi Research argues that as the BoC rate hike this week may have been priced in by markets, investors may sell on fact which may restrain CAD in the short term.
On the technical front, Citi notes that the RSI reading for USD/CAD has reached oversold levels.
“Downside may be limited at 1.2764-1.2823, Aug and Sep 2016 lows. The pair may range trade between 1.2823-1.3236 in the short term,” Citi adds.
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CAD: Out Of Consensus Call: We See BoC On Hold This Week; USD/CAD To Squeeze Higher – TD
TD Research continues to maintain its call that the BoC will leave rates on hold at this week’s meeting.
“We still think it is likely to be a much closer call than current market pricing suggests and look for the Bank to deliver a hawkish hold instead of a 25bp rate hike.
Given that the rates market is pricing in close to a 100% of a hike and the FX market appears to have front-loaded a more hawkish outcome we continue to see scope for USDCAD to consolidate on our out of consensus call….This leaves us looking for a squeeze higher in USDCAD,” TD argues.