New Zealand Trade Balance is released every month, and provides an important snapshot at the health of the economy, in particular the export sector. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the New Zealand dollar.
Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes forNZD/USD.
Published on Wednesday at 22:45 GMT.
Indicator Background
Currency demand is directly linked to trade balance since foreigners must purchase New Zealand dollars to buy New Zealand exports. Traders should pay close attention to the Trade Balance release, as any unexpected reading could affect the direction of NZD/USD.
Trade Balance looked awful in July, as the deficit ballooned to -$774 million dollars. This was way off the estimate of -18 million dollars and was the first deficit since January. The markets are braced for another large deficit for August, with an estimate of -$722 million. Will the indicator surprise the markets with a stronger reading than predicted?
Sentiments and levels
GDP posted a very small gain of 0.2% in Q2, matching the forecast. Consumer and business confidence have been steady, and recent employment releases were solid. The kiwi has been red-hot in September, gaining about six cents against the USD dollar this month. In the US, the dollar remains under broad pressure following the no-taper decision by the Fed. However, the US economy continues to pick up steam, and QE tapering is in all likelihood just a matter of time. So, the overall sentiment is neutral on NZD/USD towards this release.
Technical levels, from top to bottom: 0.8547, 0.8448, 0.8396, 0.83, 0.8177 and 0.8106.
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: -$750 million to -$690 million. In such a scenario, NZD/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
- Above expectations: -$689 million to -$660 million. An unexpected higher reading can push the pair above one resistance line.
- Well above expectations: Above -$660 million: A sharply reduced deficit would likely bolster the kiwi, and the pair could break a second line of resistance as a result.
- Below expectations: -$780 million to -$751 million. A weak reading could push NZD/USD below one support level.
- Well below expectations: Below -$780 million. In this scenario, the New Zealand dollar would likely take a hit, and the pair could push below a second level of support.
For more on the kiwi, see the NZD/USD.