NZD/USD: Trading the New Zealand jobs report Feb 2013

New Zealand Employment Change is an important leading indicator, which often has a significant impact on the markets. Traders and analysts carefully examine employment figures, looking for any trends which could affect NZD/USD. A reading which is better than the market forecast is bullish for the New Zealand dollar.

Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for NZD/USD.

Published on Thursday at 21:45 GMT.

Indicator Background

Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. The release of the New Zealand Employment Change, together with the Unemployment Rate, is keenly anticipated by the markets. The indicator is released each quarter, and an unexpected reading can affect the movement of NZD/USD.

Employment Change has posted two consecutive declines, indicating ongoing weakness in the New Zealand employment market. The markets are  expecting a turnaround for Q4 of 2012, with an estimate of 0.4%. Will the indicator be able to meet or beat the market’s prediction?

Sentiment and Levels

The New Zealand dollar has not been making waves, as it continues to trade in the mid-84 range. The New Zealand economy has been fairly steady, and  the NZD/USD. So, the overall sentiment is positive on NZD/USD towards this release.

Technical levels from top to bottom: 0.90, 0.8842, 0.8470, 0.8360, 0.8175 and 0.81.

5 Scenarios

1. Within expectations: 0.1% to 0.7%: In this scenario, NZD/USD could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
2. Above expectations: 0.8% to 1.1%: A reading above expectations could push the pair above one resistance level.
3. Well above expectations: Above 1.1%: A sharp rise in employment numbers could propel NZD/USD upwards, and two or more resistance lines could be broken.
4. Below expectations: -0.3% to 0%: A lower than expected reading could pull the pair downwards, with one support level at risk.
5. Well below expectations: Below -0.3%: A very poor reading could hurt confidence in the kiwi, and NZD/USD could break two or more support levels.

For more on the kiwi, see the NZD/USD.

To follow this event live:  

Powered by FXstreet.com
Get the 5 most predictable currency pairs