The Australian Employment Change indicator, released monthly, is an important leading indicator which often has a significant impact on the markets, and an unexpected reading could affect the movement of AUD/USD. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Australian dollar.
Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for AUD/USD.
Published on Thursday at 1:30 GMT.
Indicator Background
Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. The releases of the Australian Employment Change indicator, together with the Unemployment Rate, are highly anticipated by the markets.
The July reading was nothing short of disastrous, with a loss of -27.0 thousand jobs. The markets are expecting a much better August, with a forecast of 10.3K new jobs.
Sentiment and Levels
Since mid-July the volatile pair has pushed up almost six cents, although traders should bear in mind that there was a sharp decline during that period as well. Will the aussie continue to sparkle? Given the turmoil in Europe and mixed data out of the US economy, there is room for the aussie to make further gains, especially if the Australian economy can produce some strong data. So, the overall sentiment is bullish on AUD/USD towards this release.
Technical levels from top to bottom: 1.0874, 1.0718, 1.0605, 1.0557, 1.0482 and 1.0402.
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: 7.0K to 13.0K: In this scenario, AUD/USD could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
- Above expectations: 13.1K to 16.0K: A strong reading could push the pair above one resistance level.
- Well above expectations: Above 16.0K: A sharp rise in employment numbers could propel AUD/USD upwards, and two or more resistance lines could be broken.
- Below expectations: 4.0K to 6.9K: A lower than expected reading could pull the pair downwards, with one support level at risk.
- Well below expectations: Below 4.0K: A very poor reading will hurt confidence in the aussie, and AUD/USD could break two or more support levels.
For more on the aussie, see the AUD/USD.