Portugal and Ireland are both under the cosh of the bailout / austerity programs. Like Greece, their chances of returning to the bond markets don’t look so good at the moment. Also Cyprus could join the club.
Portugal is complying rather well and suffering quite badly. Unemployment in Portugal is forecast to rise to 15.5% in 2012 and 16% in 2013.
Ireland is considered a “success story” – it saw some growth and its bond yields falling. Ireland thought of exiting the bailout program and returning to the markets sooner than later. On the other hand, unemployment remained high in emerald isle also during the better times. If Spain doesn’t go fully Irish, Ireland could ask a change in bailout terms.
Current conditions in markets and the economies don’t point to an Irish comeback to the markets.
Also Portugal will probably stay out. If no market access is available, new bailout programs are the answer according to the current policies. This isn’t likely to happen soon, but it’s on the cards and adds pressure.
Cyprus, a member of the euro-zone, is also struggling – the exposure to Greek debt is the main issue of the banking system. The sovereign itself got some help in the form of a bilateral loan from Russia. The country is very vulnerable and any shock, either from Greece or from anywhere else, could lead to a bailout.
Cyprus is a very small country. Nevertheless, having to deal with another bailout means more trouble.
This article is part of the Forex Monthly Outlook for May. You can download it by joining the newsletter in the form below, which appears on any article on Forex Crunch.