The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 5,000 households regarding their opinion of the economy. An unexpected reading can affect the direction of JPY/USD, and a higher reading than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.
Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for USD/JPY.
Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT.
Indicator Background
The CB Consumer Confidence Index provides important readings about consumer confidence and spending, which are critical for economic growth.The index’s readings are carefully reviewed by analysts and traders looking for clues as to which direction the economy is headed.
The indicator fell in April to 69.2 points, which was below the market forecast of 69.9. The forecast for May calls for little change, with a prediction of 69.6.
Sentiments and levels
Japanese indicators remain weak, such as recent CPI and All Industries Activity releases. The recent surge by the US dollar, together with the desire of Japan for a weaker yen and the improving US economy balance the safe haven flows caused by the growing turmoil in Europe. A bit more stability could push the USD/JPY higher. More worries from Spain can’t really push it much lower. So, the overall sentiment is bullish on USD/JPY towards this release.
Another note: USD/JPY so far justifies its title as the most predictable currency pair for Q2.
Technical levels, from top to bottom: 80.20, 80, 79.60, 79, 78.30, and 77.50.
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: 65.6 to 74.0: In such a case, USD/JPY is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
- Above expectations: 74.1 to 78.0: An unexpected higher reading can send USD/JPY above one resistance level.
- Well above expectations: Above 78.0: A sharp increase in consumer confidence could propel the pair above two or more resistance levels.
- Below expectations: 61.5 to 65.5: A reading lower than forecast could send USD/JPY below one support level.
- Well below expectations: Below 61.5: An unexpected weak reading would could push the pair below two or more support levels.
For more on USD/JPY, see the USD/JPY.