The FX market is trapped in tight ranges ahead of the NFP release at 08:30EDT. From a technical perspective, we still think that US dollar is headed higher, but we need a catalyst and a confirming price action. This will of course be an impulsive reversal higher on dollar index, or lower on Euro.
On the 4h Eur/Usd chart we still think that turning point is confirmed, after an impulsive fall well below corrective channel support line and also through 1.3800 swing low. As such, corrective wave E rally from 1.3144 is now considered as complete, which means that we expect further and powerful weakness in this market, in impulsive fashion once red wave 2) pull-back will complete; ideally around 1.39!
Guest post by Gregor Horvat
Notice that we are also looking at a possible head and shoulder pattern, which will put significant weakness in play, once the neck-line is taken out!
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Here is one piece from article by a friend Yohay Elam regarding the NDP.
General scenarios for NFP:
+70K to 130K: The markets shake and quickly refocus on Greece. High probability.
+130K to 200K: The dollar weakens on a relief rally. High probability.
Above +200K: The dollar rallies on strong optimism. Low probability.
0 to +70K: The dollar strengthens on risk aversion. Medium probability.
A loss of jobs: The dollar gains a lot of ground as fear takes over. Low probability.
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