AUDUSD: Recovery Halts, Weakens
AUDUSD: The pair now faces bear pressure as a further attempt at building on its recovery started from the 1.0439 has stalled at the 1.0754 level.
The risk of this development if a return above the 1.0754 does not occur will mean possible lower prices towards the 1.0439 level with a decisive penetration of there resuming its nearer term weakness towards the 1.0388 level, its April 12’2011 low and subsequently its April 05’2011 low at 1.0287. Its daily RSI has turned lower supporting this view.
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Alternatively, for AUDUSD to re-establish its recovery it will have to break and hold above 1.0754 level and then target the 1.0888 level, April 11’2011 high.
Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.1009 level, its 2011 high where a violation will put the pair in a position to strengthen further towards the 1.1100 and then the 1.1200 level, its psycho levels.
USDCHF: Weakness To Target The 0.8400 Level
USDCHF: Vulnerability to the downside remains in force following the pair’s resumption of its long term downtrend the past week.
USDCHF now looks to weaken further towards its psycho levels at the 0.8400 and 0.8300 levels in the days ahead where a violation of the latter will pave the way for a run at the 0.8200 level.
With the pair trading in an uncharted territory, the psycho levels present support levels. Its daily and weekly RSI are bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness.
On the upside, if a recovery is triggered its nearby resistance and former support at the 0.9553 level, its 2011 low should reverse roles as resistance and turn the pair lower in the direction of its primary trend (down).
However, on a break of that level, we should see further strength building up towards the 0.8662 level, its May 27’2011 high where a breach will expose the 0.8946 level, its May 13’2011 high. A cap is expected at that level on an initial test.
All in all, USDCHF remains vulnerable to the downside in the long term as it looks to weaken further.
