German Flash Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) is based on a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. Respondents are surveyed for their view of the economy and business conditions. A reading which is higher than expected is bullish for the euro.
Update: German manufacturing PMI at 51.6 as expected
Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD.
Published on Friday at 7:30 GMT.
Indicator Background
Market analysts are always interested in the views of purchase managers on the economy, as the latter are considered to be attuned to the latest economic and financial developments, and their expectations could reflect the health of the economy.
Manufacturing PMI dipped to 52.5 points in September, down from 53.2 points. Still, this figure was within expectations. This also missed the estimate of 51.3 points. The estimate for the October reading is 51.8 points, which would signify slight expansion in the manufacturing sector.
Sentiments and levels
There is a strong expectation that the ECB will take action and not allow the euro to rise too high. We will probably see a repeat of this on center stage: the ECB rate decision. Even if the US is moving away from a rate hike in 2015, the euro-zone is in worse shape, and we can expect this disparity to be reflected in the exchange rate. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on EUR/USD towards this release.
Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.15, 1.1460, 1.1373, 1.13, 1.1215 and 1.1050.
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: 49.0 to 55.0: In such a case, EUR/USD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
- Above expectations: 55.1 to 59.0: An unexpected higher reading can send the pair above one resistance line.
- Well above expectations: Above 59.1: Such an outcome could result in the pair breaking above a second resistance line.
- Below expectations: 45.0 to 48.9: A weak reading could lead to EUR/USD dropping below one support line.
- Well below expectations: Below 45.0: In this scenario, the pair could push below a second support level.
For more about the EUR, see the EUR/USD forecast.