USD/JPY: Trading the US JOLTS Jobs Openings

JOLTS Job Openings measures the number of employment openings each month, excluding the farm industry. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.

Update: US JOLTs leap to 5.376 million

Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for USD/JPYUSD/JPY

Published on Tuesday at 14:00 GMT.

Indicator Background

Employment releases are among the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. Thus, publication of JOLTS Job Openings is highly anticipated by the markets, and the indicator can have a strong impact on the direction of USD/JPY.

JOLTS Job Openings slipped in March, coming in at 4.99 million. This was well short of the forecast of 5.16 million and marked a 4-month low. A slight improvement is expected in the April report, with the estimate standing at 5.03 million.

Sentiment and Levels

USD/JPY gained an outstanding 450 points in the month of May, and the rally has continued into June. Q2 numbers have improved over Q1 data, led by an impressive NFP report last week. With the Fed expected to raise rates in September, the sharp monetary stance between the BOJ and the Fed will likely continue to weigh on the pair. So, the sentiment is bullish on USD/JPY towards this release.

Technical levels from top to bottom: 1.2774, 1.2659, 1.2589, 1.2416, 1.2311 and 1.2202.

5 Scenarios

1. Within expectations: 4.99M to 5.07M: In this scenario, USD/JPY could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
2. Above expectations: 5.08M to 5.12M: A reading above expectations would signal economic expansion and could push the pair above one resistance line.
3. Well above expectations: Above 5.12M: A sharp rise by the indicator could push USD/JPY above a second resistance line.
4. Below expectations: 4.95M to 4.99M: A weak reading could push the pair downwards, with one support level at risk.
5. Well below expectations: Below 4.95M: In such a scenario, USD/JPY could break a second support level.

For more on the yen, see the USD/JPY

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