The traditional relationship between central bank easing and price action response, whereby easing measures translate into currency weakness, has been thoroughly challenged this year with a series of central bank easing announcements largely dismissed by markets. Guest post by James Harte of Orbex Quick Timeline The BOJ cut rates into negative territory, for the first time … “Central Banks Have Lost The Ability To Drive Currencies”
Category: Opinions
Regression Models Show Divergent Paths For AUD & NZD –
The Australian central bank cut rates and the New Zealand one is expected to follow. However, the paths could be divergent, says the team at GS: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: We periodically use regression models to map things like interest differentials, commodity prices, and risk appetite into exchange rates These models are always subject … “Regression Models Show Divergent Paths For AUD & NZD –”
Why We Remain Bullish on EUR and JPY? – Morgan Stanley
The US dollar has strengthened after the excellent jobs report. But can it continue? The team at Morgan Stanley has their doubts: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: Markets are now questioning the effectiveness of monetary easing (rate cuts or QE) to be able to weaken currencies. In particular, JPY and EUR come to … “Why We Remain Bullish on EUR and JPY? – Morgan Stanley”
GBP: Underwhelming Response To Overwhelming Stimulus; What’s Next? –
The BOE offered a massive stimulus package, but the pound did not collapse. What’s next? Here is the view from CIBC: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: A rate cut was expected, and some other measures were previously hinted at, but the £60bn in government bond purchases, £10bn in corporate bond buying and new Term … “GBP: Underwhelming Response To Overwhelming Stimulus; What’s Next? –”
GBP/USD to fall off 1.30?
The BOE laid down its massive hand and walloped the pound. Is there room for more falls? Here are opinions from Citi and BNP Paribas: GBP/USD En-Route To Break Below 1.30 After BoE Clears High Bar – BNPP The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (BoE MPC) voted 9-0 to cut the base rate from 0.50% … “GBP/USD to fall off 1.30?”
Potential for further GBP falls, not necessarily against USD
The massive BOE package announced on August 4th already hurt the pound, but there could be more in store. Here are opinions about other opportunities. More BoE Easing In November; EUR/GBP En-Route To 0.90 – Danske As expected the Bank of England (BoE) delivered a substantial easing package today, including a 25bp Bank Rate cut … “Potential for further GBP falls, not necessarily against USD”
USD/JPY: 5 Reasons To Stay Bearish; En-Route To 95 In
USD/JPY is under pressure after the light BOJ decision and the expected government stimulus. Some expect USD/JPY to hit 98 and here is a bolder call: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: Our core argument has been that we did not believe the likelihood of the market seeing “helicopter money” was anything as high as … “USD/JPY: 5 Reasons To Stay Bearish; En-Route To 95 In”
3 reasons why GBP/USD could further fall and levels to
Carney caused carnage in GBP/USD, delivering a comprehensive, coherent and timely package to mitigate the effects of Brexit. Cable dropped 200 pips and returned to the lower range. However, when looking at the bigger picture, we are still above support. Here is why there is more room to the downside and what levels to watch. … “3 reasons why GBP/USD could further fall and levels to”
EUR/USD: Trading the US Nonfarm Employment Change
US Nonfarm Employment Change measures the change in the number of newly employed people in the US, excluding workers in the farming industry. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar. Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD. Published on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Indicator Background Job … “EUR/USD: Trading the US Nonfarm Employment Change”
Will the BOE bury the GBP or is a bounce
The Bank of England convenes in a highly anticipated event. This is Super Thursday and now is the time to act, especially post-Brexit. But is a move already priced in? Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: GBP Ahead Of ‘A Very Dovish’ BoE: 3 Things To Expect – Goldman Sachs This week, the focus … “Will the BOE bury the GBP or is a bounce”