ECB President Lagarde may kick off the year with smart caution. German stimulus may allow her to present a more hawkish stance. The strategic review may end in a dovish twist late in the year. “I’m neither a dove nor a hawk, and my ambition is to be this owl” – Christine Lagarde, President of the European … “Lagarde three acts as ECB head in 2020”
Category: Opinions
US-Iran tension may end in a war – three reasons and market directions
Qassem Suleimani’s killing is significant as he is a senior state actor. Iran has already proved its sophisticated capabilities in attacking Saudi oil installations. The upcoming Israeli elections and PM Netanyahu’s battle for staying out of prison may add to the escalation. This is the real thing. Tensions simmering in the Middle East tend to … “US-Iran tension may end in a war – three reasons and market directions”
EUR/USD: The case for a surge in 2020, fueled by German change
The German economy is still struggling despite green shoots. Growing political and economic pressure may push Merkel to announce fiscal stimulus. Green investment may be the way out of austerity. EUR/USD has room to rise if governments replace the ECB in the driver seat. Germany has flirted with a recession in 2019 and prospects for … “EUR/USD: The case for a surge in 2020, fueled by German change”
US 2020 Presidential Elections: Three scenarios for the dollar and stocks
US presidential race will loom over US-dollar and stock-market trading during the whole year. There are three main potential outcomes for USD and stock markets. Market sentiment will shift depending on who the Democrats elect to face Donald Trump in November’s election. Former VP Joe Biden and youngin Pete Buttigieg are seen as business-friendly candidates. Left-wingers Bernie Sanders … “US 2020 Presidential Elections: Three scenarios for the dollar and stocks”
EUR/USD: Difficult To Edge Firmly Below 1.10; Looking For A Gradual Rise Through 1.15 In 2020 – Danske
EUR/USD has had a stubborn 2019. Where will it go in 2020? Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata: Danske Research discusses its EUR/USD outlook and adopts a constructive bias over the coming year. “Risks are broadly skewed on the downside for USD, as risk sentiment stays supported by a lenient Fed amid a brightening cyclical … “EUR/USD: Difficult To Edge Firmly Below 1.10; Looking For A Gradual Rise Through 1.15 In 2020 – Danske”
G10: Macro Story Looks Good In AUD, CAD, NZD And Poor In SEK, JPY, CHF – TD
2019 draws to a close and 2020 is about to begin. Where next for currencies? Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata: TD Research discusses G10 outlook from a macro perspective over the coming year. TD maintains a long AUD/NZD* position targeting a move towards 1.14 in 2020. “A less synchronized slowdown could reinforce broader … “G10: Macro Story Looks Good In AUD, CAD, NZD And Poor In SEK, JPY, CHF – TD”
Euro-zone PMIs may be lose-lose for EUR/USD – Three scenarios
Flash euro-zone PMIs are set to show an improvement in November. High expectations may lead to a downfall for EUR/USD. Only a substantial surprise has room to lift the common currency. ECB’s Lagarde’s speech may steal the show. Improvements are all fronts – that is what economists expect from Markit’s flash Purchasing Managers’ Indexes for November. … “Euro-zone PMIs may be lose-lose for EUR/USD – Three scenarios”
EURJPY In For Further Uspide Within an Elliott Wave Leading Diagonal – Elliott Wave analysis
It seems that a probable Elliott wave leading diagonal can be in progress from the lows on EURJPY with a price ending a fourth wave correction, so be aware of one more leg higher, before a temporary A-B-C correction starts developing. EURJPY, daily On the 4h chart of EURJPY, the pair made a strong turn … “EURJPY In For Further Uspide Within an Elliott Wave Leading Diagonal – Elliott Wave analysis”
USD/JPY may extend its falls as global worries persist
USD/JPY has been mixed amid trade and central bank headlines. The Federal Reserve’s minutes stand out. Mid-November’s daily chart continues painting a bullish picture. The FX Poll is showing further falls for the currency pair in the medium and long terms. President Donald Trump’s bashing of China has boosted the safe-haven yen, while the Federal Reserve refrained … “USD/JPY may extend its falls as global worries persist”
GBP/USD: Is Boris-related bump justified? Every poll matters
GBP/USD has been rising alongside the Conservatives’ reelection chances. Opinion polls, trade headlines, and further Fed news are set to determine the next cable moves. Mid-November’s daily chart is pointing to falling momentum for the pound. Conservatives are consolidating their lead – that pound-positive development has overshadowed all other events, including poor UK figures. The run-up … “GBP/USD: Is Boris-related bump justified? Every poll matters”