The clock is ticking closer to the midnight hour regarding a strike in Iran. Israel might do it alone, but will likely have the backing of the US. Is a war imminent, or are these moves just meant to scare Iran? Here are 5 signs that have piled up very recently. SWIFT Cuts Iran Off: The … “5 Signs that a War in Iran is Close”
Category: Opinions
EUR/USD: Trading the UoM Sentiment March 15 2012
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index surveys consumer attitudes and expectations about the US economy. An increase in consumer confidence is a positive sign about the health of the economy, as consumer spending is a critical component of economic growth. Thus, a reading that is higher than predicted by the markets is bullish for the dollar. … “EUR/USD: Trading the UoM Sentiment March 15 2012”
Forex Correlations Changing (Video)
A deeper change is happening in the markets. The “risk on” / “risk off” behavior is fading away. In the video below, Simon Smith of FxPro discusses the drop in the VIX volatility index, the changing relation between high beta currencies, the dollar and stocks. The changes in behavior come on the background of the … “Forex Correlations Changing (Video)”
USD/JPY: Trading the Philly Index March 2012
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is an important leading indicator, and is based on a survey of manufacturers in the Philadelphia area. It examines manufacturers’ opinions of business activity, and helps provides a snapshot of the business climate and sentiment in the US. A reading which exceeds the forecast is bullish for the dollar. Here are … “USD/JPY: Trading the Philly Index March 2012”
Will Oil Prices Go Down an Elevator?
Oil prices are steadily climbing “up the stairs”. One of the drivers of this ascent is the tension around Iran. If a full scale conflict really breaks out, there certainly is room for rises. Nevertheless, history suggests that they will fall down “an elevator” afterwards and will dig deeper into the basement for a long … “Will Oil Prices Go Down an Elevator?”
GDP/USD: Trading the British Claimant Count Change
The British Claimant Count Change measures the change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits. Along with the Unemployment Rate indicator, which is released at the same time, it provides a snapshot of the employment situation and can be a market-mover for GDP/USD. Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for GBP/USD. Published on … “GDP/USD: Trading the British Claimant Count Change”
4 Scenarios for the Fed Decision
The FOMC is not expected to make any significant policy changes. While Bernanke is certainly unimpressed from the situation of the economy, he did acknowledge that employment is improving, and the scenario of QE3 has little chances. What can the Fed do? Here are 4 scenarios and the potential reaction for the US dollar. First, … “4 Scenarios for the Fed Decision”
EUR/USD: Trading the German ZEW Mar 2012
The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index is based on a monthly survey of institutional investors and analysts and their views of the German economy. A reading that is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Euro. Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD. Published on Tuesday at 10:00 GMT. … “EUR/USD: Trading the German ZEW Mar 2012”
NFP Reaction in EUR/USD and Similarity to Dec ’09
A quick look into the NFP numbers from December 2009 revels an interesting pattern. At that time expectation was for loss 120K jobs but number came out a loss only of 11K. This result was far better than expected and euro fell sharply while stocks rallied. This is the same reaction that we see today. … “NFP Reaction in EUR/USD and Similarity to Dec ’09”
EUR/USD: Trading the Non-Farm Employment Change
The US Non-Farm Employment Change measures the change in the number of employed people, excluding workers in the farming industry. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar. Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD. Published on Friday at 1:30 GMT. Indicator Background Job creation is one of … “EUR/USD: Trading the Non-Farm Employment Change”