President Donald Trump’s contraction of COVID-19 raises questions about fiscal stimulus talks. Sympathy could strengthen the incumbent’s position, narrowing his gap with rival Biden and tightening the race. Questions about the Vice President’s Pence’s leadership could rise. The October surprise is here – President Donald Trump and his wife Melania tested positive for COVID-19. The … “Trump’s coronavirus adds uncertainty in three ways, stocks have more room to fall”
Category: Opinions
Presidential Debate Preview: Trump may lose due to his own buildup, market implications
The first presidential debate is set to shake up the elections campaign. President Trump’s playing down of challenger Biden’s skills may turn into a double-edged sword. Markets will move on implications for a new fiscal relief package. “Sleepy Joe” is what President Donald Trump calls his opponent and former Vice-President Joe Biden. Mocking a political … “Presidential Debate Preview: Trump may lose due to his own buildup, market implications”
GBP/USD: Boris’ Brexit climbdown insufficient to keep pound afloat
GBP/USD advanced on hopes for a Brexit compromise but suffered from the Fed. A critical vote in parliament, UK PMIs, and US figures are eyed. Late September’s daily chart is painting a mixed picture. The FX Poll is pointing to a bullish outlook in the short and medium terms before a fall later. Boris gave, … “GBP/USD: Boris’ Brexit climbdown insufficient to keep pound afloat”
Retail Sales Analysis: Miserable figures good for gold as fiscal help could come sooner
US Retail Sales missed by rising by only 0.1% in August. The lapse of federal support seems to be taking its toll. Growing chances of fresh relief from Washington could boost gold prices. The economic recovery cannot walk on its own – that is the conclusion from America’s retail sales figures for Aguust. Expenditure grew … “Retail Sales Analysis: Miserable figures good for gold as fiscal help could come sooner”
Fed Analysis: No news is good news for the dollar, at least until Congress moves
The Federal Reserve’s projections reiterate the message of low rates. Growth is forecast to return to pre-pandemic levels only by the end of 2021. The cautious message may boost the dollar, weigh on sensitive stocks. Focus shifts to Congress, where there is fresh hope for a deal. Read my dot-plot, no new rate hikes – … “Fed Analysis: No news is good news for the dollar, at least until Congress moves”
BOE Preview: Fast recovery or trio of troubles? Bank’s tone to set pound’s direction
The BOE is set to leave rates unchanged but its tone is set to rock the pound. Recovery from coronavirus has been rapid and may hold back the bank from hinting new stimulus. Higher uncertainty about Brexit, coronavirus, and the furlough scheme may result in a concerned message. Glass half-full or half-empty? That is the dilemma … “BOE Preview: Fast recovery or trio of troubles? Bank’s tone to set pound’s direction”
US Elections: How stocks, gold, dollar could move in four scenarios, nightmare one included
Post-Labor Day polls show Biden leading over Trump, yet the race remains open. Deadlocked fiscal relief talks play a growing part in shaping the reaction in gold. An inconclusive election is gaining ground as an outcome to consider. There are less than two months until election day – but the results may fully be known … “US Elections: How stocks, gold, dollar could move in four scenarios, nightmare one included”
ECB Analysis: Lagarde unleashes euro rally, virus and more QE may push it lower
ECB President Lagarde sent the euro higher by saying it doesn’t target the exchange rate. The upgrade to GDP forecasts is already based on the euro’s value. Rally may be limited as the bank sees the pandemic as a significant downside risk. “We do not target the FX rate” – Christine Lagarde, President of the … “ECB Analysis: Lagarde unleashes euro rally, virus and more QE may push it lower”
ECB Preview: Three things for EUR/USD traders to watch out for
The ECB is set to leave rates unchanged but comments on the exchange rate are set to rock the euro. New forecasts are likely to show a minor upgrade to economic forecasts. ECB President’s Lagarde words on using the full extent of the stimulus package is also of importance. Glass half-full or half-empty? The European … “ECB Preview: Three things for EUR/USD traders to watch out for”
2020 Elections: Biden widens gap against Trump, why that may trigger a market bounce
A batch of polls conducted after the dust settled from party conventions show Biden enlarging his lead. President Trump may push for a larger fiscal package to increase his chances. Markets have room to rise after the recent downward correction. “It’s the economy stupid” – that comment around Clinton’s 1992 election campaign is where President … “2020 Elections: Biden widens gap against Trump, why that may trigger a market bounce”