The US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and its employment component are set to fall in August. Low expectations and upbeat manufacturing gauge point to a potential upside surprise. The dollar has room to bounce, yet headwinds from the Fed would make it short-lived. Under-promising and over-delivering – something that politicians rarely do – is what may … “ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Preview: Low bar opens door to (temporary) dollar bounce”
Category: Opinions
ISM Manufacturing PMI Preview: Why only a leap can stop the dollar’s decline
The ISM Manufacturing PMI is set to continue reflecting moderate growth. Dollar selling pressure remains significant after the Fed’s policy shift. Contracting employment could add pressure on the greenback. The industrial sector remains on a recovery path – that what economists expect ISM’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index to reflect in its August report. Nevertheless, that may … “ISM Manufacturing PMI Preview: Why only a leap can stop the dollar’s decline”
GBP/USD: Time to take profits? Why sterling may suffer in back-tos-school week
GBP/USD has been rising amid Powell-powered dollar weakness. Brexit headlines, coronavirus news, BOE speeches, and Non-Farm Payrolls are set to move the currency pair. Early September’s daily chart is pointing to near overbought conditions. The FX Poll is pointing to falls in the short, medium and long terms. Fed-fueled dollar weakness has been overshadowing everything … “GBP/USD: Time to take profits? Why sterling may suffer in back-tos-school week”
Abe’s Departure Analysis: USD/JPY buying opportunity? Abenomics is here to stay
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is set to step down after nearly eight years in office. The safe-haven yen reacted with a rise amid uncertainty about the succession. Economic policy is set to remain on course under any replacement, leaving room to recover. The end of an era – that is how several media outlets … “Abe’s Departure Analysis: USD/JPY buying opportunity? Abenomics is here to stay”
Powell Quick Analysis: Fed fires on all cylinders, three factors fueling gold stocks, downing dollar
Fed Chair Powell has introduced a new policy framework, allowing for average inflation targeting as expected. Details are lacking, opening the door to inflation running hot. The bank will also prioritize employment over price rises. The Powell Put is alive and kicking – Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, announced a major dovish paradigm … “Powell Quick Analysis: Fed fires on all cylinders, three factors fueling gold stocks, downing dollar”
Powell Speech Cheat Sheet: Three scenarios for the dollar and stocks
Fed Chair Powell is set to announce a change allowing for higher inflation. Providing details about the potential heat up could send the dollar down. Refraining from rocking the boat would boost the greenback. Making Jackson Hole great again – even if the speech is virtual. Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, will be … “Powell Speech Cheat Sheet: Three scenarios for the dollar and stocks”
US GDP Preview: Will the corona-quarter look better at second sight? Not necessarily
The first revision to second-quarter GDP is set to show a minor upgrade. Several upside surprises in US figures indicate a better result. On the other hand, coronavirus’ resurgence in June may result in worse data. Confirming the catastrophe, albeit with a marginal upgrade – that is what economists are expecting for the revised Gross … “US GDP Preview: Will the corona-quarter look better at second sight? Not necessarily”
US Retail Sales: Last hurrah may risk critical stimulus, prove double-edged sword
US retail sales beat expectations on almost all measures. The data reflects the last month of full coronavirus-related fiscal stimulus. Robust figures may prompt lawmakers to drag their feet, causing a crash moving forward. V-shaped recovery – that is what retail sales figures for July reflect for the US economy, and that was already seen … “US Retail Sales: Last hurrah may risk critical stimulus, prove double-edged sword”
RBNZ Preview: Ending NZD/USD’s recovery attempt? Dovish stance on QE and coronavirus may weigh
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is set to leave interest rates unchanged at its August meeting. COVID-19’s comeback in the country may trigger a dovish stance. Hints about the bond-buying scheme or negative rates may weigh on the kiwi. Over 100 days without any coronavirus case have come to an end – and the … “RBNZ Preview: Ending NZD/USD’s recovery attempt? Dovish stance on QE and coronavirus may weigh”
UK GDP Preview: Three reasons why 20% contraction estimates are too low, GBP/USD may rise
Economists expect a contraction of over 20% in the UK’s economic output in Q2, worse than other developed economies. Figures for April and May suggest a more moderate decline. Recent UK labor statistics point to the role of the government in propping up the economy. One fifth lower – that is what the economic calendar … “UK GDP Preview: Three reasons why 20% contraction estimates are too low, GBP/USD may rise”