US Crude Oil Inventories measures the change in the number of barrels held in inventory. The report is published each week. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for USD/CAD.
Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for USD/CAD.
Published on Thursday at 16:00 GMT.
Indicator Background
As Canada is a major oil producer, the Canadian dollar often mimics the movement of oil prices and is sensitive to US Crude Inventories. Traders should pay close attention to this indicator, as an unexpected reading can have a strong impact on the movement of USD/CAD.
Crude Inventories surprised with a surplus of 2.3 million, compared to the estimate of a decline of 2.4 million. Previously, the indicator had posted four straight declines. Will we see another surplus in the upcoming release?
Sentiments and levels
The Canadian dollar has sagged badly since mid-December and the currency remains under pressure. Sentiment towards the USD/CAD remains solid, buoyed by a strong US economy. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on USD/CAD towards this release.
Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.3911, 1.3813, 1.3648, 1.3551, 1.3452 and 1.3351
5 Scenarios
- Within expectations: -1.6M to -1.0M. In such a scenario, USD/CAD is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
- Above expectations: -0.9M to -0.5M: A reading that is higher than expected can send the pair above one resistance line.
- Well above expectations: Above -0.5M: In this scenario, a second resistance line might be broken as a result.
- Below expectations: -2.1M to -1.7M: A weaker reading than expected could cause the pair to break below one support level.
- Well below expectations: Below -2.1M. In this scenario, USD/CAD could break below a second support level.
For more on the loonie, see the USD/CAD..