Georgia’s special Senate runoffs are critical for control of the Senate. A dual Democratic win would boost markets in expectation of more stimulus. Markets may be disappointed if Republican Senator Perdue scores an early win. Counting the votes may be protracted in the likely case of close contests. The 2020 elections are not over – no, … “Georgia Elections Preview: Markets geared for a special moment, three scenarios”
Category: Opinions
GBP/USD: Fishing for a Brexit deal set to succeed, allowing for cheerful gains
GBP/USD has been extending its gains amid optimism for a Brexit deal. The week including Christmas, may see markets digesting the news and readjusting. Late December’s daily chart continues painting a bullish picture. The FX Poll is pointing to short-term gains and a drop afterward. The EU and the UK leveled up the pound with … “GBP/USD: Fishing for a Brexit deal set to succeed, allowing for cheerful gains”
Powell’s charm offensive soothes markets, but a Santa Rally depends on Congress
Fed Chair Powell committed to buying more bonds if necessary. Soothing words of support allowed stocks to recover and the dollar to rise. Strongly urging Congress to act refocuses market perspective. Markets want money– shares initially dropped when the Federal Reserve offered only guidance but no new bond-buying. However, a dose of honey can go … “Powell’s charm offensive soothes markets, but a Santa Rally depends on Congress”
BOE Preview: Bailey may grant a Christmas gift to pound bulls, assuming no negative rates talk
The Bank of England is set to leave its policy unchanged in its last meeting of 2020. Vaccine hopes and satisfactory economic data will likely result in a pound-positive message. Only a substantial message of upcoming negative rates could sink sterling. Will the Bank of England rest in London while negotiators frantically discuss Brexit in … “BOE Preview: Bailey may grant a Christmas gift to pound bulls, assuming no negative rates talk”
Fed Preview: How a dose of economic Christmas cheer could spoil the market mood
The Federal Reserve is set to leave its interest rate unchanged in the last meeting of 2020. New forecasts will likely be more upbeat, signaling no urgency for further support. The dollar has room to rise on upbeat projections and the lack of stimulus from the Fed nor Congress. Will the Federal Reserve bring a … “Fed Preview: How a dose of economic Christmas cheer could spoil the market mood”
UK Jobs Preview: Data set to reflect reality, potentially pounding the pound
The UK’s Unemployment Rate and jobless claims have likely risen amid the ongoing crisis. Economists expect wage growth to continue rising from the abyss, a silver lining. GBP/USD may suffer a blow, but that also depends on Brexit mood music. Too good to be true? That may be the case of Britain’s hailed furlough scheme … “UK Jobs Preview: Data set to reflect reality, potentially pounding the pound”
GBP/USD: Brexit deal for Christmas or battle to the wire? Hundreds of pips at stake
GBP/USD has been trading in wild swings in response to Brexit headlines. Dual rate decisions and sets of negotiations are set to rock the pound. Mid-December’s daily chart is painting a bullish picture. The FX Poll is pointing to short-term falls before a move higher. No deal at dinner but perhaps over the weekend? A … “GBP/USD: Brexit deal for Christmas or battle to the wire? Hundreds of pips at stake”
EUR/USD ready to break 1.22, yet the Fed, Brexit, stimulus and virus loom
EUR/USD has been grinding higher after the ECB decision and amid multiple negotiations. The final Fed decision of the year and coronavirus headlines stand out. Mid-December’s daily chart is showing the pair has more room to rise. The FX Poll is pointing to falls on all timeframes. There is no good without bad – the ECB … “EUR/USD ready to break 1.22, yet the Fed, Brexit, stimulus and virus loom”
Why the BOC could send CAD higher, despite downbeat data
The Bank of Canada is set to leave interest rates unchanged in the last decision of the year. GDP and employment figures have recently disappointed and may dampen officials’ mood. Vaccine optimism, fiscal support and other factors make the case for an upbeat statement. The days are shorter and the data is worsening – yet … “Why the BOC could send CAD higher, despite downbeat data”
ECB Preview: More money but no honey, Lagarde may lower the euro if she wants to
The European Central Bank is set to add around €500 billion of QE in its December meeting. President Lagarde may warn about the euro’s exchange rate, potentially bringing it down. Hints about lowering interest rates could break the common currency but are unlikely. Many things have changed in 2020 – but talking directly about the … “ECB Preview: More money but no honey, Lagarde may lower the euro if she wants to”